Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Market Moves 3/25-29/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Cypriot Crisis
What will it affect: EUR, DAX, STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX (SXXP)
Status: an agreement is reached
Where to keep an eye on the event: Bloomberg, Reuters, etc
Why traders care and what to expect: Cyprus was in dire need of a bailout and the European Union approved it Sunday night, under certain conditions. The second largest bank in Cyprus will be shut down and accounts under 100K euro will be transferred to the Bank of Cyprus. Uninsured deposits above 100K will incur heavy losses and will be used to resolve debt. The amount/percentage that will be taken from those accounts is not known yet.
Directional bias: UP if a solution is reached
DOWN if the crisis is not defused
How I would trade this event: Although a solution has been reached and the market sees it as a bullish sign, more turmoil is due to come. I would place Calls on EUR/USD and DAX but the risk of a sell off is still very much present. The main event has already passed and the mentioned assets already moved up but for sure the ripple effect will be seen throughout the week.
2. US Core Durable Goods Orders
03/26/2013 – Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, DOW JONES, S&P 500
Forecast: 0.7% from a previous of 2.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Durable goods are considered to have a “life” span of more than 3 years. Such an investment reflects a level of confidence from the buyer so this indicator also offers insights about consumer confidence. Usually in times of economic contraction, the orders for durable goods decrease. The CORE value excludes from calculation the orders for transportation items.
Directional bias: UP if the value will be higher than 0.7%
DOWN if the value will be lower than 0.7%
How I would trade this event: I would but an hourly Call on S&P 500 if the actual value is above 2.0%
3. US Consumer Confidence
03/26/2013 – Tuesday at 2:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, DOW JONES, S&P 500
Forecast: 69.3 from a previous of 69.6
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters,
Why traders care and what to expect: The figures for Consumer Confidence will be released by The Conference Board Inc. and are closely linked to consumer spending. A person who feels confident about the economic situation of the country is more likely to spend more; this will lead to higher numbers for the Retail Sales and thus, increased economic activity. The survey is based on a sample of about 5,000 households.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number will be higher than 69.3
DOWN if the actual number will be lower than 69.3
How I would trade this event: I would place 15 minute Puts on DJ and S&P if the number will be lower than 55.
4. German Unemployment Change
03/28/2013 – Thursday at 08:55 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: -2K from a previous of -3K
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: The German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone economy and higher unemployment numbers are of course, detrimental for the currency and European indices. The level of unemployment can negatively affect consumer spending and retail sales (an unemployed person will limit his/her spending).
Directional bias: UP if the number will be lower than -2K
DOWN if the number will be higher than 2K
How I would trade this event: I would place a Put on EUR/USD if the number will be above zero.
5. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
03/29/2013 – Friday at 1:55 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, DOW JONES, S&P 500
Forecast: 73.2 from a previous of 71.8
Where to keep an eye on the event:, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The actual number is based on a large sample of telephone surveys which asks respondents to rate the relative level of confidence regarding personal income, purchasing power and business conditions. This economic indicator is considered one of the best gauges for American consumer sentiment and usually lower values are indicative of decreasing economic activity in the near future.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 73.2
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 73.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 78.
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***Note: The exact time, date and value for the release of the Earnings reports may change or it is not announced at the moment. It is possible that the date will be updated as well. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for the actual release.
Note 1: This week the UK and the US will announce their Gross Domestic Products on Wednesday (09:30 am GMT) and Thursday (12:30 pm GMT) respectively. Because most of the components of the GDP are known in advance, over time its ability to strongly move the market has decreased, but it still remains one of the most important economic indicators for an economy’s health.
Note 2: On the 25th of March at 5:15 pm GMT, Ben Bernanke (FED Chairman) is due to deliver a speech together with Mervyn King (Governor of the Bank of England) at the School of Economics in London at 5:15 pm GMT. Expect volatility and sharp turns, depending on their attitude.