Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 12/30/2013-01/03/2014
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Pending Home Sales
12/30/2013 – Monday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 1.1% from the previous -0.6%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator measures the change in the number of houses under contract to be sold but waiting for the final, closing transaction. A higher value suggests a thriving economy, with people willing to spend money on a house.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 1.1%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 1.1%
How I would trade this event: I would trade hourly Puts on USD/JPY if the value doesn’t meet expectations.
2. US Consumer Confidence
12/31/2013 – Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 76.5 from the previous 70.4
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer confidence is indicative of future consumer spending which in turn represents a major part of the entire US economic activity. The indicator is a survey of about 5,000 households regarding job availability and current and future economic conditions.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 76.5
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 76.5
How I would trade this event: Most markets are closed and the ones that are open will suffer from low volume and alternating volatility due to New Year’s Eve. I will not trade.
3. New Year’s Day
01/01/2014 – Wednesday
What will it affect: All assets
Forecast: The market stops
Where to keep an eye on the event: On high ground so the fireworks are visible
Why traders care and what to expect: Most brokerages are closed on New Year’s Eve and the 1st of January and trading will be probably the last thing on traders’ mind.
Directional bias: Wobbly direction, depending on how many drinks you will have
How I would trade this event: I can’t trade such events
4. US Unemployment Claims
01/02/2014 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 334K from the previous 338K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator shows the change in the number of people looking for unemployment related benefits during the previous months and it’s a gauge of economic health. Jobs are easily available when the economy is thriving and that’s why better than expected (lower) numbers are considered bullish.
Directional bias: UP the actual number is lower than 334K
DOWN if the actual number is higher than 334K
How I would trade this event: I would trade a 15 minute Put on EUR/USD if the actual number will be lower than 330K
5. US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
01/02/2014 – Thursday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 56.8 from the previous 57.3
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: This is a survey based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. They are asked to rate business conditions and usually values above 50 indicate optimism.
Directional bias: UP the actual number is higher than 56.8
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 56.8
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour call on S&P500 if the number will be higher than expected.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Keep Tracking of the Upcoming Binary Options Trading Events on CommuniTraders Social Trading Platform!
Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.
Note 2: The market will probably have irregular movement for the entire week due to New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The events mentioned will have mixed and/or hard to predict impact.