Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 12/02-08/2013
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Speech of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
12/02/2013 – Monday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US indices and stocks
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve speaks at the National College Fed Challenge in Washington DC. The competition encourages students to learn more about the Federal Reserve System and about monetary policy; although the speech is not directly related to the current US financial situation, strong moves may be triggered if the Chairman hints about future actions of the Fed.
Directional bias: UP if Ben Bernanke’s attitude is hawkish
DOWN if Ben Bernanke’s attitude is dovish
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events.
2. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate
12/03/2013 – Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 2.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Interest rates are crucial for currency valuation and immediate direction. Although the rate is not expected to change, volatility will be probably present. A Rate Statement will be released at the same time by the RBA, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision; it also contains hints about future monetary direction.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement contains a positive outlook
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement contains a negative outlook
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. Once volatility subsides, I would trade according to the established direction if there is one.
3. Bank of England Interest Rate decision
12/05/2013 – Thursday at 12:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: GBP, UK stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The interest rate has the potential to be a currency’s strongest market-mover event, especially if it’s modified by the Central Bank. Although no change is anticipated for Thursday’s release, volatility will be high. Keep an eye on the Asset Purchase Facility value which is announced at the same time.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade such events. Sharp turns are often experienced.
4. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
12/05/2013 – Thursday at 12:45 pm GMT (Press Conference at 1:30 pm GMT)
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.25%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory, ECB official website
Why traders care and what to expect: Usually the Rate decision creates decent volatility but traders wait for the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. During the Conference, Mario Draghi will read a speech and then he will answer audience questions. This part is the most important because investors and traders around the world try to interpret his answers and attitude, but they often fail and this generates sharp reversals and whipsaws.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if Mario Draghi has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if Mario Draghi has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: Market direction is hard to predict during such events so I refrain from trading.
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
12/06/2013 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 184K from previous 204K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important report regarding the US employment situation. An increase in the number of employed people suggests a thriving economy and also acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Directional bias: UP the actual number will be higher than 184K
DOWN if the actual number will be lower than 184K
How I would trade this event: I will probably wait until volatility has settled down and decide afterwards.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Keep Tracking of the Upcoming Binary Options Trading Events on CommuniTraders Social Trading Platform!
Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.