Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 11/18-22/2013
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
11/19/2013 – Tuesday at 10:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 54.6 from previous 52.8
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The importance of this indicator comes from the fact that it is based on the opinions of about 275 German analysts and institutional investors. The nature of their jobs keeps them highly informed, having a professional opinion on the economic conditions.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 54.6
DOWN if the actual value is below 54.6
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD and one on DAX if the value will not be higher than 55.0.
2. U.S. Retail Sales
11/20/2013 – Wednesday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.1% from previous -0.1%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator shows the change in the value of sales made at a retail level compared to the previous month and represents the primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for about two thirds of all economic activity. Retail sales make up for approximately one third of all consumer spending and also indicate confidence among consumers when such sales increase.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value will be higher than 0.1%
DOWN if the actual value will be lower than 0.1%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the value will meet expectations
3. U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
11/20/2013 – Wednesday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices
Forecast: 1.0% from the previous 1.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer prices account for the majority of inflation: if people pay more for the same product than they did a month before, it means inflation has increased. A too high or too low CPI may determine the Fed to modify the Interest Rate in order to maintain inflation between certain boundaries. Usually a higher than expected CPI strengthens the greenback.
Directional bias: UP if the CPI value is above 1.0%
DOWN if the CPI value is below 1.0%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on AUD/USD if the value of the CPI is above 1.1%.
4. FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/20/2013 – Wednesday at 7:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD US Stocks and indices
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: It’s the main tool the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) uses to communicate with the public about monetary policy and fiscal matters. It contains details about the members’ votes on the Federal Funds Rate, economic outlook and most importantly, it can offer clues about future rate votes or stimulus package tapering.
Directional bias: UP if the Minutes contain hawkish information
DOWN if the Minutes contain dovish information.
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the Minutes are hawkish. I will only do this after the initial volatility settles down.
5. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
11/21/2013 – Thursday early morning (the exact time is not announced)
What will it affect: JPY, Japanese stocks and indices
Forecast: no forecast is made
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Once every month the members of the BoJ Policy Board meet to analyze economic developments and to decide whether to adjust the Interest Rate or not. At each meeting they establish a Guideline for Money Market Operations and the recommendations contained in this document will shape the future monetary direction. BoJ Governor speaks at the Press Conference, generating volatility and possibly sharp reversals.
Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a positive outlook or the Governor has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Statement contains a negative outlook or the Governor has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility is back to normal I will trade accordingly.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.