Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 10/21-25/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Non Farm Payrolls
10/22/2013 – Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 180K from previous 169K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important report regarding the US employment situation and its initial release was delayed due to the US Government debt crisis. This makes the release even more anticipated than usual and probably heavy volatility will be created.
Directional bias: UP the actual number will be higher than 180K
DOWN if the actual number will be lower than 180K
How I would trade this event: I will probably wait until volatility has settled down and decide afterwards.
2. Australian Consumer Price Index
10/23/2013 – Wednesday at 00:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD
Forecast: 1.8% from the previous 2.4%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer prices are directly related to inflation; if consumers pay more for the same product than they did during the previous analyzed period, it means inflation is higher. This may eventually determine the central bank to adjust interest rates. The Australian CPI is released quarterly (instead of monthly as other countries) and this makes its impact a bigger one.
Directional bias: UP if the CPI is above 1.8%
DOWN if the CPI is below 1.8%
How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute and hourly Calls on AUD/USD if the actual value will be at least 1.8%.
3. Bank of England Meeting Minutes
10/23/2013 – Wednesday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The Minutes will contain the details of the latest Bank of England meeting regarding the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility. The votes of the Monetary Policy Committee members will be made public and traders will also get some important insights regarding the reasons that determined the votes.
Directional bias: UP if the Minutes are more hawkish than expected
DOWN if the Minutes are more dovish than expected
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on GBP/USD if the Minutes will not be extremely hawkish
4. United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product
10/25/2013 – Friday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 1.5% from previous 1.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s most important gauge of health and progress. A higher GDP suggests that things are picking up and the economy is thriving. Most of the components of the GDP are known in advance and this makes its value easier to anticipate but the actual release remains a high impact event nonetheless.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value will be higher than 1.5%
DOWN if the actual value will be lower than 1.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy two 15 minute Puts on GBP/USD if the value will not meet expectations.
5. US Durable Goods Orders
10/25/2013 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US indices and stocks
Forecast: 2.0% from the previous 0.1%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX.
Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of at least three years are considered Durable and this kind of products are usually purchased in times of good economic conditions because they have a higher cost than non-durable goods. More orders for this type of goods suggest increased consumer confidence towards the economic situation.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 2.0%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 2.0%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on EUR/USD if the value will not meet expectations
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.