Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 01/27-31/2014
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. UK Gross Domestic Product
01/28/2014 – Tuesday at 09:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: unchanged 0.8%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is the most important gauge of a country’s overall economic growth. Most of its components are known in advance and this makes its value easy to anticipate but the indicator remains a potential market mover nonetheless.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.8%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.8%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on GBP/USD if the value will be lower than 0.8%.
2. FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate
01/29/2014 – Wednesday at 7:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 0.25%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The Rate is not expected to change and the main focus will be on developments related to the stimulus program and Fed’s decision to taper it or not. Strong movement is likely to be present and I believe trading will be difficult at the time.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement is bullish
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement is bearish
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility subsides, I will trade according to the established trend.
3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Statement
01/29/2014 – Wednesday at 8:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: NZD, New Zealand stocks and indices
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Interest Rate is not expected to change from its current value of 2.50% and is usually overshadowed by the RBNZ Rate Statement which contains insights into the reasons that influenced the Bank’s Rate decision, an economic outlook and often hints about future rates.
Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a positive outlook
DOWN if the Statement contains a negative outlook
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility is back to normal I will trade accordingly.
4. German Preliminary Consumer Price Index
01/30/2014 – Thursday at 1:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 1.5% from previous 1.4%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory, Investing.com
Why traders care and what to expect: The Consumer Price Index is the main gauge of inflation and shows the fluctuations of the price paid by consumers for the products they purchase. The German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone economy hence the importance of the indicator.
Directional bias: UP the CPI value will be higher than 1.5%
DOWN if the CPI value will be lower than 1.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the actual value will not meet expectations.
5. US Advance Gross Domestic Product
01/30/2014 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 3.2% from the previous 4.1%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: There are three versions of this indicator (Advance, Preliminary and Final) but usually the first one (Advance) has the biggest impact on the market. The GDP is the main gauge of the economy’s performance and has the potential to move the market strongly.
Directional bias: UP the actual value is higher than 3.2%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 3.2%
How I would trade this event: I would trade a 15 minute Call on EUR/USD if the actual value will be lower than 3.5%
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.