Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 01/13-01/17/2014
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Retail Sales
01/14/2014 – Tuesday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.2% from the previous 0.7%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator shows the change in the value of sales made at a retail level. Consumer spending represents about two thirds of the entire economic activity and Retail Sales are about one third of consumer spending. Better than expected figures suggest increased economic activity.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.2%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.2%
How I would trade this event: I would trade hourly Puts on EUR/USD if the value is higher than 0.3%.
2. Australian Employment Change
01/16/2014 – Thursday at 12:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: 10.3K from the previous 21.0K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: This report is the most important gauge of Australian employment, showing the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. If more people are employed, consumer spending (which is a vital part of the economy) usually increases.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 10.3K
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 10.3K
How I would trade this event: I would but a Call on AUD/USD if the number will not be lower than 5K.
3. US Consumer Price Index
01/16/2014 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.3% from the previous 0.0%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The Consumer Price Index shows the fluctuations in the price paid by consumers for the goods and products they purchase and is the main gauge of inflation. A higher CPI means that consumers pay more for the same product than they did last month so inflation increased.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.3%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.3%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the value of the CPI will meet expectations.
4. UK Retail Sales
01/17/2014 – Friday at 9:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 0.5% from the previous 0.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important measure of consumer spending which accounts for the biggest part of UK’s economic activity and has the potential to strongly affect the Pound, strengthening it if the volume of retail sales increases and weakening it if retail sales drop.
Directional bias: UP the actual value will be higher than 0.5%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a Put on GBP/USD with an hourly expiry if the value will not exceed expectations.
5. US Consumer Sentiment
01/17/2014 – Friday at 2:55 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 83.4 from the previous 82.5
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer sentiment is highly related to consumer spending. If consumers are confident in the economic situation, it is likely they will spend more and as we already know, consumer spending represents a major part of the entire economic activity.
Directional bias: UP the actual number is higher than 83.4
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 83.4
How I would trade this event: I would buy a Call on AUD/USD with a four hour expiry if the actual number will be lower than 82.5
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.