Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis 10/14-18/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
10/15/2013 – Tuesday at 12:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: This is the primary tool used by the Reserve Bank of Australia for communicating the reasons behind the latest Interest Rate decision and the details of their latest Meeting. Sometimes the Minutes can also contain hints about future monetary direction or Rate changes and that’s what traders are interested in.
Directional bias: UP if the Minutes are more hawkish than anticipated
DOWN if the Minutes are more dovish than anticipated
How I would trade this event: I will probably wait until volatility has settled down and decide afterwards.
2. United Kingdom Consumer Price Index
10/15/2013 – Tuesday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 2.6% from the previous 2.7%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer prices are directly correlated with inflation and a higher CPI suggests increased inflation. If inflation goes above or below a certain threshold, the Bank of England may adjust Interest Rates in order to stabilize the currency.
Directional bias: UP if the CPI is above 2.6%
DOWN if the CPI is below 2.6%
How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute and hourly Puts on GBP/USD if the actual value will not rise above 3.0% for this release.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment
10/15/2013 – Tuesday at 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 49.2 from previous 49.6
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The ZEW survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts and it’s a leading indicator of economic health. The surveyed analysts and investors are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs so their opinion weighs more than the one of an untrained person.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 49.2
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 49.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be lower than or equal to 49.2
4. United Kingdom Retail Sales
10/17/2013 – Thursday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 0.5% from previous -0.9%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer spending represents the majority of overall economic activity and the retail sector accounts for the biggest part of Consumer spending. That’s why this indicator is closely monitored by all traders and has a high impact on the market. Higher numbers are beneficial for UK’s economy.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value will be above 0.5%
DOWN if the actual value will be below 0.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy several 15 minute Puts on GBP/USD if the value will not meet expectations.
5. Chinese Gross Domestic Product
10/18/2013 – Friday at 02:00 am GMT
What will it affect: CNY, Chinese indices
Forecast: 7.8% from the previous 7.5%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX.
Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is the primary gauge for an economy’s performance and it is a high impact indicator. The GDP value can be accurately forecast because most of its components are released previously and this limits somewhat the market impact. The indicator compares the current quarterly value with the same quarter of last year.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 7.8%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 7.8%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on HIS if the value will be higher than 7.7%
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.