Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis 08/26-30/2013 – Must Watch Events
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Durable Goods Orders
08/26/2013 – Monday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices
Forecast: -3.0% from the previous 3.9%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered “durable” and an increase in such purchases indicate a thriving economy because in times of economic instability people think more about their primary needs and not so much about buying durable items. The purchase of a durable good usually implies a larger investment so it suggests confidence in the economic conditions.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value will be higher than -3.0%
DOWN if the actual value will be lower than -3.0%
How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Calls on AUD/USD if the value is lower than -3.0%.
2. German IFO Business Climate
08/27/2013 – Tuesday at 8:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 107.1 from the previous 106.2
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: This is a highly respected survey mostly due to its large sample size: about 7000 businesses are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to provide an outlook for the next 6 months. Businesses react quickly to any changes in the economic conditions and their sentiment can be an early signal for market participants
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 107.1
DOWN if the value is lower than 107.1.
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the actual number is lower than 105.
3. US Consumer Confidence
08/27/2013 – Tuesday at 2:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices
Forecast: 79.6 from the previous 80.3
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer confidence is one of the main determining factors of consumer spending. The survey is released by The Conference Board Inc. and measures confidence among consumers from the perspective of business conditions, employment level and personal income. The index is derived from on a large sample of about 5,000 households which are asked to rate the conditions I mentioned and this large sample also gives it more reliability.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 79.6
DOWN if the value is lower than 79.6
How I would trade this event: I would buy a 15 minute Put and one hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be above 83.
4. Speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney
08/28/2013 – Wednesday at 11:45 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak Wednesday in Nottingham at the East Midlands Conference Centre and as we know, speeches of heads of central banks are always very important. Market participants usually try to pick up hints about future monetary direction but they often misinterpret them and as a result the market moves erratically.
Directional bias: UP if the Governor has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Governor has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events.
5. Euro Zone CORE CPI
08/30/2013 – Friday at 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged, 1.1%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Consumer Price Index is the main gauge the ECB uses for measuring inflation. A higher CPI suggests rising inflation, a fact which will be eventually countered with an Interest Rate increase. Usually the ECB tries to keep the consumer price between 0% and 2% so any value outside this range may trigger a rate change.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 1.1%
DOWN if the value is lower than 1.1%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/JPY if the value is lower than 1.1%
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Note : The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.