Tip from the Geek – Top 5 Binary Options Trading Tips 03/31-04/07/2014
Spring Has Sprung
The official start of spring was more than a week ago but in terms of the financial markets I think we can say it really starts with the first of April. April fools day, the first day of the second quarter, a quarter I think will see some real improvements in economic output, at least in the U.S. China I can’t say, that country lives behind a wall covered by a veil. Japan, maybe they will return to growth but there are still many headwinds for the island nation to face. Europe is where the picture brightens. Economic activity in that region, although slow, is in good position to pick up provided other factors do not deteriorate too much. In the U.S., there are already signs that the winter slump in activity is over and the weather affect was much less than feared.
This week there is going to be an onslaught of data. It’s the end of the month and that means auto and truck sales, housing data, inflation data and the all important employment bundle including the ADP, Challenger and NFP reports. Because it’s the end of the quarter we will also get the final read on 4th quarter GDP in the U.S. Europe and Asia will also be releasing mountains of data so be on the lookout for this as well. Germany started the week off reporting an much smaller decline in retail sales for February. At the same time inflation fell more than expected furthering speculation the ECB would need to add some QE to it’s programs. Earnings news is very light this week, but starting next Monday things heat up again with Alcoa on Monday.
1. Market Has Big Expectations
S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 1870
Expiration = One week
My Trading Advice
The market is expecting big things this spring and the SPX is looking pretty bullish. The index is being supported by easy money but also by improving economic data. So far it looks as if the Fed has been able to walk the fine line between growth and inflation that intersects with the fine line between easy money policy and crashing the market when that policy begins to tighten. Long term economic trends are up, signs are good that the winter slump in activity is over and that the labor market is picking up speed. Last months NFP report was very good, this week we may get a revision to last month but more importantly will be this months number.
The S&P 500 is making a bounce from the long term trend line and also sitting just under resistance. The indicators are bullish but a break above resistance is needed to get a really bullish stance. There is a small possibility that the data will be poor or that the market will find a reason to sell off but I don’t think so. Trends are up and it will take more than one bad number to reverse that. I am trading a call on the SPX with a target entry below 1870 and one week until expiry.
2. Yen Pop
USD/JPY
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 103.25
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
The yen has been winding up over the last 6 to 8 weeks as the BOJ, economic data, FOMC and most recently the Ukraine flight to safety all took an impact on rates. This weekend the pair finally popped and to the upside, as expected. Abenomics and Tapering are pushing this pair apart long term. In the near term the Japanese usage tax hike goes into effect tomorrow and may push the BOJ into furthering their QE policies. For now, I am bullish on the break out and trading calls this week. My target entry is below 103.25 with one week until expiry.
3. Retail Rises In Germany
DAX
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 9625
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
Retail sales rose in February in Germany. While not a definitive sign that Germany is strong it is one more small sign that Germany is the right place to be invested in the EU. There is still a chance that China could have a negative impact on the region but there is always that chance or so it seems these days. I am bullish on the DAX and see it retesting highs in the near future. I am trading a call on the DAX with a target entry below 9625 and one week until expiry.
4. Gold Prices Sinking
Gold
Call/Put = Put
Entry = Above $1290
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
Gold prices broke the $1300 level last week as interest rate hike outlook caused the dollar to strengthen. While physical buyers may be expected at these levels there is little reason to invest in the metal long term right now. Improving U.S. economic data, the taper and the expectations of higher rates next year will keep gold prices lower. I am trading a put on gold this week with a target entry above $1290 and one week until expiry.
5. Oil Prices Firm
Oil ETF
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below $36.65
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
Oil prices are holding firm above the $100 level. The Ukraine standoff has some impact on prices but more to the point, improving data and the expectations of spring growth are keeping them high. I expect this weeks data to help support higher oil prices. I am trading a call on the Oil ETF with a target entry below $36.65 and one week until expiry.
More Tips by the Geek – 03/31-04/07/2014 Trading Tips On Forum.
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That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on CommuniTraders Binary Options Trading Platform.
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