Tip from the Geek – Top 5 Binary Options Trading Tips 01/13-20/2014
Data And Earnings On Tap This Week
Last week the NFP numbers came as quite a shock to the market. The low low number was well below the expectations and well below the levels indicated by other employment data. It seems as though the low NFP may have been brushed off because the markets were able to hold their levels going into the close on Friday. The NFP, below 100K, is not a great sign. However, we have had months of improving ADP numbers, steady jobless claims and declining unemployment so I think that the jobs picture is still looking fairly decent. So long as other data points do not start to deteriorate the economy, based on jobs and employment, is still improving. There will be some seasonal volatility going into the spring especially around the Easter shopping peak but the trends are still good. Besides, with so much disparity between the ADP and NFP I think the NFP will get a monster revision next month.
This week is another major data week. The NFP is important but it is only one data point. This week we will get info on retail sales (important for the post-holiday season retail analysis and earnings expectations), import/export prices (tells us how much we get for our goods compared to what we are paying), the Fed Beige Book (tells us how they really think the economy is doing), Mortgage and housing indices (the state of the housing market, duh), Long Term TIC Flows (tells us how much foreign investment is coming into the states), the Philly Fed Survey (reveals the state of manufacturing in the north east U.S.), Housing starts and building permits (gives insights into what to expect from housing in the near to short term) and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (the state of industry and how much of the infrastructure is being used). On top of all that important U.S. data there are also about 4 dozen potentially important international events that could have far reaching implications. Check into Bogdans Top Five Market Movers Of The Week for more on that.
1. Earnings Is Once Again Upon Us
S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 1840
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
On top of the data, this is also a big earnings week. The official season kicked off last week with Alcoa, who did not inpsire much confidence in the current quarter but did give us a ray of hope for 2014. This week the big banks, and the entire banking sectore almost, is on tap. Expect to see reports from JPM, WFC, BAC, C, GS, AXP, BBT, MS and dozens of small and regional operators. I expect to hear good things, the Banking Index, and most of the individual banks, has been trending up. Even JPM, who has been plagued with nearly $20 billion in fines this year, has broken past resistance with bullish indicators.
The S&P 500 was able to maintain its position above the pre-holiday support level. The indicators are very weak but do not point in either direction specifically. The momentum has bee at or near zero for over a week, indicating a lack of commitment from either side. Data and earnings, providing they as a group do not point to contraction, should help the market find its way. The long term trends are still up so I am trading calls this week. My target entry is below 1840 with one week until expiry.
2. German Industry Supporting The EU
DAX
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 9500
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
If not for France I think the EU would be on much better footing than it is. I mean, even Spain, Italy and Greece are showing some signs of improvement. Data from the region, especially Germany, has been improving along with the U.S. and today earnings from the region helped to support the idea of recovery. The trend in the DAX is still up although it has seen some volatility and softness since the first of the year. Providing the U.S. market does not fall apart. I am trading calls with a target entry below 9500 with one week until expiry.
3. Euro At Resistance
EUR/USD
Call/Put = Put
Entry = Above 1.3650
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
The Euro got a boost from the bad NFP but I think this is mostly a knee jerk reaction and providing additional entries. The Euro popped up above resistance last week but has fallen back below with the start of the new week. The data and earnings should be dollar positive so I am trading a put on the EUR/USD. If the pair manages to regain the upper side of resistance and stay there I may reverse this position. I am trading a put with a target entry above 1.3650 and one week until expiry.
4. USD/JPY Correction
USD/JPY
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 103.50
Expiration = One Week
My Trading Advice
The yen also got a boost from the poor NFP report. This too is most likely a knee jerk reaction. The U.S. economy is still growing/recovering and Abenomics is still in place. These two conditions should continue to drive the yen and the dollar apart. The yen is now trading just below the resistance of the previous intra-day high and support around 102.5. This is most likely a bearish extreme driven by the data. The real move will take place next week when the BOJ and the FOMC meet. Until then data and earnings will keep influencing short term exchange rates. I am trading call on the USD/JPY with a target entry below 103.50 and one week until expiry.
5. Gold, Gold, Gold
Gold
Call/Put = Put
Entry = Above $1245
Expiration = One week
My Trading Advice
Gold. I have been a big gold bear for a while now but I think the metal may be trying to put in a bottom. For now it is not there and the metal is trading back up at major long term resistance just below the $1250 level. The data and the earnings I expect will be dollar positive, therefore gold negative. I am trading puts this week with a target entry above $1245 and one week until expiry.
More Tips by the Geek – 01/13-20/2014 Trading Tips On Forum.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on CommuniTraders Binary Options Trading Platform.
Think you know better than our experts?? Have a Second Opinion?? Post your trading advice on our Trading Tips Forum or at the bottom of the page! Join CommuniTraders and Start Trading, only on BOTS.com new growing community.
*** Please read Binary Options Weekly Trading Tips guide to understand better how to use the trading tips. Start Smart with BinaryOptionsthatSuck.com.