Tip from the Geek 05/04–05/11/2015: What Do We Do Now?
Top 5 Weekly Binary Options Trading Signals by the Geek
The FOMC held their meeting last week and left us with just as much of a conundrum as before. When the heck is the first interest rate hike going to come? The statement they gave noted past weakness as a reason to wait on more data, but cited the reasons for the weakness as transitory and provided positive forward outlook. Inflation is still rising slowly but approaching their target rate with labor market slack leaving the market. All this adds up to potential zone of time in which we can expect the rate hike to come; somewhere in the range of June-September just like it always was. The exact timing may be in question but we know it is at hand. When it come there may be some near term volatility but anyone who is caught with their pants down hasn’t been paying attention. The rate hike has been well telegraphed and is on the way.
So, what do we do now? The same thing we’ve been doing, following the trends and trading the signals. This week will be yet another important one for trends. Earnings continue to roll in and by this point in the season I think it is safe to say that they are much, much better than expected. At the start of the season the average expectation was for earnings growth of -4.8%, not that has come up to an actual closer to -0.5%. Negative earnings growth is not good but in light of expectations this is fantastic, and growth is supposed to return if not this quarter than next. Economics will also be important. It is the start of yet another new month which means another round of macro-economic data including the all-important non-farm payrolls report.
1. Waiting For A Break Out
S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 2,110
Expiry = One Week
My Trading Advice
The trends are good. The technical trend on the index is positive with a bounce forming as we speak. The earnings trends are good as well. Earnings growth took a pause over the winter, not as bad as feared, with positive expectations for a return to growth, strong growth I might add, later tin the year. On top of that economic trends are also quite nice. We are not experiencing robust growth, there is no noticeable boom in activity but we have nice, steady continuous growth leading us higher. All together what we have is a trifecta of positive trends confirming each other and leading me to bullishness.
The index is moving higher. It has been testing support all the while but each time it bounces from a slightly higher low and always comes up to test the all-time high. The long term trend line is part of support at this time as well leading to a strong indication of continuation. There could be another test but I am confident it will hold, providing the labor data doesn’t show a complete breakdown of trend. I am bullish this week and trading a call. My target entry is below 2,110 with one week until expiry.
2. Bursting The Oil Bubble
USO/Oil ETF
Call/Put = Put
Entry = Above $20.25
Expiry = One Week
My Trading Advice
The oil market is suffering from a bubble. The price of crude has reached a 6 month high, in retracement of the downtrend we say last year, built on the idea of declining production levels and in the face of rising supply. At the same time Exxon and other major integrated oil companies have actually INCREASED production, at least according to earnings reports released last week. Oil may go higher, but not this week I fear. There are major, growing, divergences in the indicators that lead me to trade a put. My target entry is above $20.40 with one week until expiry.
3. Golden Opportunities Persist
Gold
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below $1190
Expiry = One Week
My Trading Advice
Gold has been volatile around the $1190 region for several weeks. The metal is being affected by dollar values by way of FOMC statements, Beige Book, minutes, Fed speak and economic data. This is all near term and has only served to provide numerous buying opportunities in the $1170-$1180 region. The long term view, and what is providing support, is the idea that inflation, no matter how absent now, is on the way. There may be some more volatility but for this week the risk is to the upside. I am trading a call with a target entry below $1190 and one week until expiry.
4. Poor Japan, Can’t Grow
USD/JPY
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 120.25
Expiration = Three days
My Trading Advice
There is a lot of volatility in the currency markets, driven by all the same factors as those driving gold with the addition of international central banks and economic conditions. The dollar is ranging between highs and lows versus more than one currency but not necessarily in the same directions. In terms of the yen the dollar is gaining strength. The dollar is about to see a tightening of interest rates while the yen is being actively printed in an economy that has yet to emerge from decades of stagnancy. I am trading a call on this pair with a target entry below 120.25 but only three days of expiry. I am keeping expiry short because resistance is not much higher than 121 and the outlook is hazy beyond the labor data later this week.
5. European Bounce Back?
EUR/USD
Call/Put = Call
Entry = Below 1.1150
Expiry = Three Days
My Trading Advice
The technicals on this pair are strong. Momentum and stochastic both indicate a strong market and one that is likely to set a new high, at least in the near term. I am ambiguous about the dollar and where it is going but for now I am trading the signals. I am buying a call with a target entry below 1.1150 and three days of expiry.
More Tips by the Geek – 05/04–05/11/2015 Trading Tips On Forum.
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That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on CommuniTraders Binary Options Trading Platform.
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