The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 08/04-08/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate decision and Rate Statement
08/05/2014 – Tuesday at 4:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD
Forecast: no Interest Rate change is anticipated (2.50%)
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: The Cash Rate of Australia has a huge influence on its financial markets, especially on the exchange rate of the Australian Dollar. Although the Rate has been maintained for quite a long time at the same level, this event is still a market mover mainly because it is accompanied by a Rate Statement which most market analysts consider to be even more important de actual Rate itself.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement offers hints about future increases
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement offers hints about future decreases
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. If a clear direction is established after the event has finished, I would trade accordingly.
2. UK Services PMI
08/05/2014 – Tuesday at 8:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 58.1from the previous of 57.7
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Services PMI is the third released indicator in the series of three Purchasing Managers Indexes. These are monthly indicators derived from surveys of private sector companies. Traders should keep an eye on all of the three PMI indicators as a figure above 50.0, on all of them, suggests industry expansion and a healthy economy.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 58.1
Down if the actual value is lower than 58.1
How I would trade this event: I would buy an end of day Put on GBP/USD if the value will be lower than 57.5
3. New Zealand Employment Change (quarter over quarter)
08/05/2014 – Tuesday at 10:45pm GMT
What will it affect: NZD
Forecast: 0.7% from the previous 0.9%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Although it is released 35 days after the quarter ends, this indicator tends to have sturdy impact on the market as it is the earliest report from New Zealand regarding employment situation of the previous quarter. Considering that it is released together with the Unemployment Rate, any drastic change will highly influence the exchange rate of the New Zealand Dollar.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.7%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.7%
How I would trade this event: I would place end of day Put on NZD/USD if the value will be as expected or lower.
4. Bank of England Interest Rate decision
08/07/2014 – Thursday at 11:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Like you’ve probably expected, UK’s Official Bank Rate is not anticipated to change. But still, the announcement of whether the Bank of England has increased, decreased or maintained the Interest Rate will always have a great influence on financial markets. If however, a change occurs a Statement by the Monetary Policy Committee will follow shortly.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I do not trade at the time of such events.
5. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
08/07/2014 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: not expected to change from current 0.15%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: More important than the actual Interest Rate decision, which is not expected to change, will be ECB’s Press Conference that will follow 45 minutes after. All market participants will have their ears on what Mario Draghi has to say in his statement, of course the second part with questions from the journalists and answers from ECB’s President will generate a lot of volatility in the market as everybody tries to interpret his words and analyze what would be the future steps regarding ECB’s monetary policy.
Directional bias: UP if the President is hawkish or the Rate is increased
DOWN if the President is dovish or the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I will trade after volatility has calmed down and only if a clear direction has established.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.