The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 07/28-08/01/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. German Prelim Consumer Price Index
07/30/2014 – Wednesday at 12:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 0.2% from the previous 0.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: CPI is a well known way to measure changes in the purchasing power of any currency, thus the magnitude that this indicator has on the market. Wednesday’s release is focused on Germany and we know that its economy is one of the main engines for Euro-Zone economic mechanism so it is very likely that German CPI will influence the entire Euro-Zone inflation readings.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.2%
DOWN if the value is lower than 0.2%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an end of day Put on DAX if the value will be lower than expected.
2. US Advance Gross Domestic Product (quarter over quarter)
07/30/2014 – Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 3.1% from the previous -2.9%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: This version of GDP is the earliest released, out of three, and usually the one with the biggest impact on the market. The GDP is the most comprehensive report that provides important insight regarding US’s economic performance. Although all its components are known beforehand, this report still maintains its ability to wake up the market upon its release.
Directional bias: UP the actual value is higher than 3.1%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 3.1%
How I would trade this event: I would trade a 30 minute Call on USD/JPY if the actual value will be as expected or higher.
3. US Federal Interest Rate Decision and Statement
07/30/2013 – Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US indices
Forecast: unchanged, 0.25%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: FOMC members meet 8 times per year to decide on US’s monetary policy, and after each meeting they announce their decision and release a Rate Statement as well. The Interest Rate decision is usually highly anticipated by market analysts and thus the Statement tends to have more importance than the actual rate itself, which is considered to be just a number.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the Chairman has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the Chairman has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: I would wait for a clear direction to establish and trade only in the direction of the prevailing trend.
4. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate (YoY)
07/31/2014 – Thursday at 9:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.5%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: As stated above, CPI is a highly regarded report that basically measures inflation. Today’s release is the Estimate version of CPI and it is known to have a larger impact than the Final version, mainly because of its timeliness. Lately, Euro-Zone’s inflation has been in the spotlight for ECB and that is why this week’s release will definitely not pass by unnoticed.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.5%
DOWN if the value is lower than 0.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the value will be lower than 0.5%
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
08/01/2014 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 230K from the previous 288K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: NFP is vital economic data and market specialists consider it the most comprehensive report regarding job creation in the US. This indicator shows the change in the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. We know that Fed is keeping a close eye on this report as one of its responsibilities is to keep employment in a healthy range.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 230K
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 230K
How I would trade this event: I will place an end of day Put on S&P500 if the value will be as expected or lower.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Follow Bogdan’s Top Trading Events Live on CommuniTraders Trading Platform!
Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.