BOTS Financial Calendar: Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Moves 07/01-05/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. US Manufacturing PMI
07/01/2013 – Monday at 2:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Indices and some US stocks
Forecast: 50.6 from the previous 49.0
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The survey is released by the Institute for Supply Management and it is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers activating in the Manufacturing sector. They are asked to rate the level of business conditions including production, deliveries, price and employment levels. Because the indicator acts as a gauge for economic health, better than expected numbers strengthen the currency.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 50.6
DOWN if the value is lower than 50.6
How I would trade this event: I would place a Put on EUR/USD if the value is at least 50.6, relying also on the latest downtrend the pair is showing.
2. RBA Rate Decision and Rate Statement
07/02/2013 – Tuesday at 04:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD
Forecast: unchanged 2.75%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The importance of the Interest Rate Decision is well known but it tends to create strong volatility only if the Rate is changed. However, the Royal Bank of Australia Rate Statement released at the same time is more likely to create volatility nonetheless. It will contain insights about the reasons that influenced the Rate decision and future economic outlook.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the RBA Statement is hawkish
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the RBA Statement is dovish
How I would trade this event: I would trade only after the initial volatility has settled down and a clear direction is established
3. BoE Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility
07/04/2013 – Thursday at 11:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: unchanged 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: No change is expected for the Interest Rate but the event is likely to generate movement. The Asset Purchase Facility released at the same time shows the amount of money the Bank of England creates in order to purchase assets in the market and stabilize the currency. At the moment no change is anticipated from the previous of 375B. If any change is made to the Rate or the APF, the Bank of England will release a Statement outlining the reasons that determined the change.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the APF is decreased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the APF is increased
How I would trade this event: I would trade only after the initial volatility has settled down and a clear direction is established. I don’t trade volatility generated by such events.
4. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
07/04/2013 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Press Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The Interest Rate is the primary tool the ECB uses for maintaining monetary stability but the main market mover is usually the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB reads a statement and then answers journalists’ questions regarding current and future developments in the Euro Zone economy. His attitude is closely watched by traders and investors and usually generates massive moves in the market but it is often misinterpreted.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or if the President has a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the President has a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: I will wait for volatility to calm down before trading
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
07/05/2013 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US indices, some US Stocks
Forecast: 162K from the previous of 175K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: This indicator measures the change in employment (not the total number of employed people) during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and it’s the main gauge for employment situation in the USA. It is also highly correlated with consumer spending: employed people spend more than unemployed ones. Over time it proved to be one of the main market movers and its impact is almost always a big one.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 162K
DOWN if the value is lower than 162K
How I would trade this event: Just like I said before, I will wait for the market to settle down and then trade accordingly.
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Note 1: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.