Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis 09/23-27/2013

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

1. Speech of ECB President Mario Draghi

09/23/2013 – Monday at 1:00 pm GMT

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

Why traders care and what to expect: The ECB President is going to testify about the economic situation of the Euro Zone at the quarterly hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels. As we already know, his speeches are almost always accompanied by volatility and strong moves so it may be better to wait until the hearings are over.

Directional bias:  UP if the President has a hawkish attitude

                                  DOWN if the President has a dovish attitude

How I would trade this event: I will probably wait until volatility has settled down and decide then.

2. US Consumer Confidence

09/24/2013 – Tuesday at 2:00 pm GMT

What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices

Forecast: 79.9 from the previous 81.5

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer confidence is directly correlated with consumer spending; consumers who are confident about the economic situation of their country are more likely to spend more and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the US economic activity. The survey is based on the opinions of about 5,000 households.

Directional bias:  UP if the actual number is higher than 79.9

                                  DOWN if the actual number is lower than 79.9

How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Calls on USD/JPY if the value is higher than 81.

3. US Durable Goods Orders

09/25/2013 – Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT

What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices

Forecast: 0.0% from the previous -7.4%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory

Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered “durable” and an increase in purchases of such goods indicate a thriving economy because in times of economic instability people think more about their primary needs and not so much about buying durable items. The purchase of a durable good usually implies a larger investment so it suggests confidence in the economic conditions. 

Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.0%

                                   DOWN if the value is lower than 0.0%

How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Puts on S&P 500 and DJIA if the value is lower or equal to 0.0%

4. United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product

09/26/2013 – Thursday at 08:30 am GMT

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: unchanged, 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is the broadest gauge or an economy’s overall performance. Most of its components are known in advance and this makes the forecast highly accurate; however the actual release of the GDP remains a high impact event.  

Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.7%

                                  DOWN if the value is lower than 0.7%

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on GBP/USD and one on FTSE if the value matches the forecast.

5. Japan National Consumer Price Index

09/26/2013 – Thursday at 23:30 pm GMT

What will it affect: JPY, Japanese Stocks and Indices

Forecast: 0.8% from the previous 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

Why traders care and what to expect: The Consumer Price Index is the main gauge for inflation and this makes it a high impact indicator because the Bank of Japan may choose to modify its Monetary Policy to counter the effects of a rising inflation. Also keep an eye on the CPI indicator which excludes from calculation the Fresh-Food sector and which is released at the same time.

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.8%

                                 DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.8%

How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Puts on USD/JPY if the value will be at least 0.8%.

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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.