Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis 09/09-13/2013 – Must Watch Events
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. UK Claimant Count Change
09/11/2013 – Wednesday at 08:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: -21.2K from previous -29.2K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator measures the change in unemployed people who are looking for social help. A higher number of unemployed people suggests the economy is contracting and jobs are not as easily available. A contracting or stalling economy weakens the currency of the country.
Directional bias: UP if the number is lower than -21.2K
DOWN if the number is higher than -21.2K
How I would trade this event: I would buy a Put on GBP/JPY if the actual number is higher than -20K.
2. RNBZ Rate Statement
09/11/2013 – Wednesday at 09:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: NZD
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory, RNBZ official website
Why traders care and what to expect: The Rate Statement follows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate decision and usually overshadows it. The Rate is not expected to change (2.50%) and the Statement focuses more on future monetary direction and often contains hints about this matter (that’s why traders pay more attention to it). There will be a Press Conference at the same time which will also generate volatility.
Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a positive outlook
DOWN if the Statement contains a negative outlook
How I would trade this event: I would trade only after the initial volatility settles down and a clear direction emerges.
3. ECB Monthly Bulletin
09/12/2013 – Thursday at 08:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Bulletin shows the statistical data that was used by the European Central Bank when they made their latest Interest Rate decision. It also contains a detailed analysis of future economic conditions. This has a high impact on investors’ sentiment and can determine the Euro’s next direction.
Directional bias: UP if the Bulletin contains a hawkish outlook
DOWN if the Bulletin contains a dovish outlook
How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Puts on EUR/USD if the Bulletin is not extremely hawkish.
4. Bank of England Inflation Report Hearings
09/12/2013 – Thursday at 09:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Governor Mark Carney and members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee regarding inflation and economic outlook. Their attitude and answers will create volatility and possibly sharp market turns.
Directional bias: UP if the Governor and MPC members have a hawkish attitude
DOWN if the Governor and MPC members have a dovish attitude
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events
5. US Retail Sales
9/13/2013 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices
Forecast: 0.5% from the previous 0.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Sales made at a retail level are crucial for the US economy and this indicator is the primary gauge of consumer spending. Higher numbers suggest a good overall economic environment and increased confidence among consumers. Keep in mind that consumer spending accounts for more than two thirds of all US economic activity.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.5%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Puts in sequence on EUR/USD if the value will be at least 0.5%
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Note : The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.