Tip From the Geek January Recap – January Sucked, But Not For My Profit
January Trading with the Geek Recap – Great Start of the Year!
January trading was tough, as it is every month. The specific things affecting trading this particular month include the start of a new year, actively changing central bank policy, plunging oil prices, weak December data and lack luster earnings. Together, these things have caused a stir of volatility that swept the market. No asset class was left unaffected as forex rates caused commodity prices to shift caused equities to readjust and back around again in a downward spiral. The good news is that this downward spiral seems to have stopped now, and that the swirling currents affecting the markets in January did not impair my profits.
Now that a new year has started, and that CT is fully functional, I am returning to my original method of computing my profits and losses. That is, I am going to be presenting my financial results based on the trades that closed in the month of January. This will include all the trades opened in the last week of December, all the December trades with one month until expiry and all the trades placed in January that did not carry into February. I like doing it this way because this is how my accountant likes me to present my earnings and expenses for tax purposes. After that I will go on a week by week basis, as always, and recount the tips made in January with an outlook for the current month.
January was one of my better months, 23 trades were closed with 16 of them in the money. This is a 70% win rate and a great start to the year. I’ve been making trades of $300 since switching to CT 2.0 and have been doing well. The total cost of trades closed was $6900, the total return on trades was $8800 for a net profit of $1980. This is a 28.6% return on investment and a 14% return on account in only 30 days!
Total Cost Of Trading = -$6900
Total Return On Investments = +$8800
Net Profits = +$1980 or 28.6% ROI
Recap Of January Trading
January was an active month for the market, if not a bullish one. Not only was there first of the year positioning there was a wave of central bank activity, plunging oil prices, earnings and unexpected economic weakness. This year there were only 4 Monday’s in the month, so only 20 tips. I did make a couple of extra tips but you will have to follow me on CT to see those. On an as tipped basis January was not quite as good as previously reported. Only 12 trades closed in the money for a win rate of 60%. this is still profitable, just not as good as 70%.
Week One – January 5th, 2015
This was the fist trading week of the month and the new year. I, and many other market participants, began the year with high hopes but they were soon dashed. It became evident with the first day of trading that the rally was stalling, or at least not surging. My trades on the yen and JPMorgan failed, the yen fell from resistance ahead of the BOJ meeting and JPM failed on earnings. The SPX, gold and USO all paid off though, the SPX just barely.
Week Two – January 12th, 2015
By this time it was clear that there would be hurdles to the market. Plunging oil prices and weak earnings only part of the problem. I was able to position myself well though and was able to win 4 of the 5 trades. The only one that did not profit was my trade on the yen. The USD/JPY had been sitting on a support level, but it wasn’t a strong one and the pair sank to a new low.
Week Three – January 19th, 2015
This was my best week of the month, I won every trade but that may have been luck. This is the week after the ECB and BOJ meetings, and the week of the FOMC meeting, and the week that really weak December data started to come through. I bought the SPX on a dip, and was able to squeak a profit out of it. The same is true for the USD/JPY. My trades on gold, the USO and the EUR/USD were much better. These were all trend following trades with sound technical entries.
Week Four – January 26th, 2015
This was my worst week, and my worst week in months…I lost every trade and not by a little. I had anticipated much better data, better GDP, better earnings and better outlook. I got none of it, not to mention that many of my assets were trading near resistance, and the markets turned against me. It is sad, but not the end of the world. It’s happened before and it will happened again…the most important thing to remember, for me especially, is that my long and short term win rates are both positive and high enough to remain profitable. Trade on.