The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 06/02-06/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision and Rate Statement
06/03/2014 – Tuesday at 4:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: no Interest Rate change is anticipated (2.50%)
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: In the spotlight will be the Rate Statement rather than the Interest Rate decision itself, which is often already priced in the market. Market participants will carefully assess RBA’s Statement which includes explanatory notes regarding current and future monetary policy.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement offers hints about future increases
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement offers hints about future decreases
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. If a clear direction is established after the event has finished, I would trade accordingly.
2. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)
06/03/2014 – Tuesday at 9:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.7%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Later this week the ECB is expected to lower the Interest Rate and as we know from previous comments made by Mario Draghi, the Central Bank is closely watching CPI’s fluctuations as it plays an important part in their Rate decision. This indicator basically measures inflation and if inflation does not float in ECB’s comfort zone, they will be obliged to alter the Interest Rate in order to keep price stability.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.7%
DOWN if the value is lower than 0.7%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 0.8%
3. Bank of England Interest Rate decision
06/05/2014 – Thursday at 11:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Although BOE’s Interest Rate is stable for quite a long time and it’s not expected to modify any time soon, the announcement of the Rate decision still excites the market and can generate a lasting trend. Nevertheless if a Rate adjustment will occur, a MPC Statement will follow shortly after.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I do not trade at the time of such events.
4. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
06/05/2014 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: 0.10% from current 0.25%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: All eyes will be focused on these events as market participants expect to see a decrease in the Interest Rate, a consequence of ECB’s worries regarding latest inflation levels. Regardless if a change occurs or not, the Press Conference will generate volatility, especially the Q&A part which starts after Mario Draghi has read the prepared Statement.
Directional bias: UP if the President is hawkish or the Rate is increased
DOWN if the President is dovish or the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: If the rate is decreased, I will place end of day Puts one EUR/USD and one on EUR/JPY.
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
06/06/2014 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 219K from the previous 288K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: NFP is one of the most watched indicators released by the US as job creation is very important for an economy; this indicator shows the change in employment numbers in the non-farming sector. NFP is also a leading indicator of consumer spending, which represents an important part of overall economic activity and this adds to its importance.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 219K
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 219K
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on S&P500 if the actual number will be lower than expected.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.