The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 04/21-25/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Australian Consumer Price Index (quarter over quarter)
04/23/2014 – Wednesday at 1:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: unchanged 0.8%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: A higher CPI means that consumers pay more for the same goods and services, thus indicating that the purchasing power of the Aussie Dollar has declined and inflation has increased. Market participants keep a close watch over this indicator as high values might determine the central bank to change interest rates in order to maintain inflation between certain boundaries. Unlike other countries, Australia publishes CPI quarterly increasing the significance of this indicator.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.8%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.8%
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on AUD/USD if the value will be under 0.8%
2. Bank of England’s MPC Meeting Minutes
04/23/2014 – Wednesday at 8:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 0 – 0 – 9
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters, BoE official website
Why traders care and what to expect: The Minutes contain details from the most recent MPC meeting, including the interest rates vote of each member and the reasons behind their decision. The breakdown of votes is in “increase – decrease – unchanged” format thus providing a clear insight on how close to changing the interest rates is the committee.
Directional bias: UP if the Minutes contain positive expectations
DOWN if the Minutes contain negative or stagnant expectations
How I would trade this event: I would buy a 15 minute Put on GBP/USD if the Minutes will be dovish.
3. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Statement
04/23/2014 – Wednesday at 9:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: NZD, New Zealand stocks and indices
Forecast: anticipated to change to 3.00% from previous 2.75%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Interest Rate decision is often priced in the market and that’s why the Statement is in the spotlight. The RBNZ displays through its Statement the economic reasons that led to their decision and might also shed some light about future rate changes.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate increases or the Statement contains a positive outlook
DOWN if the Rate decreases or the Statement contains a negative outlook
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility is back to normal and a clear direction is established I will trade accordingly.
4. ECB President Draghi Speaks
04/24/2014 – Thursday at 9:00 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Note: Some sources have 10:00 am GMT as the time of the event.
Why traders care and what to expect: Mario Draghi is due to speak at the “De Nederlandsche Bank 200 years: Central Banking in the Next Two Decades” conference, held in Amsterdam. As we know, market participants carefully track each public appearance of ECB’s President as they try to find hints about future Euro direction.
Directional bias: UP if the President’s attitude is hawkish
DOWN if the President’s attitude is dovish
How I would trade this event: I will trade after the event is over if a clear direction is in place.
5. United Kingdom Retail Sales
04/25/2014 – Friday at 8:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: -0.4% from the previous 1.7%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: This is a leading indicator for consumer spending which is one of the most important parts of an economy. Higher numbers for sales made at a retail level are proof of high consumer demand and this indicates an increased economic activity.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than -0.4%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than -0.4%
How I would trade this event: I would place an hourly Put on GBP/JPY if the value will be lower than expected.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.