Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 12/23-27/2013
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Canada’s Gross Domestic Product
12/23/2013 – Monday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: CAD, Canadian stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.1% from previous 0.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Since the Gross Domestic Product is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, higher values suggest a thriving economy and usually a stronger currency. Of course, lower values indicate decreased economic activity and may weaken the Canadian Dollar.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.1%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.1%
How I would trade this event: I would trade hourly Puts on USD/CAD if the value is at least 0.2%
2. US CORE Durable Goods Orders
12/24/2013 – Tuesday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 0.9% from the previous 0.4%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of at least three years are considered “durable” and usually this type of goods require a larger investment from the buyer. A growth in orders for durable goods suggests increased consumer confidence and good economic conditions. The CORE version of the indicator excludes transportation items from the calculation.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.9%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.9%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the value will be at least 0.8%.
3. US New Home Sales
12/24/2013 – Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 449K from the previous 444K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator offers hints about the economy’s health as increased home sales suggest that more people are confident and consider they can afford a house purchase. Additional spending is also triggered by a house purchase (electric/electronic appliances, furniture, etc.).
Directional bias: UP if the number is higher than 449K
DOWN if the number is lower than 449K
How I would trade this event: I would place an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the value will meet expectations.
4. Christmas is Here
12/25/2013 – Wednesday
What will it affect: The whole market
Forecast: A Holy baby is born
Where to keep an eye on the event: Wherever your loved ones are
Why traders care and what to expect: This economic indicator… ah, forget about that. Forget about trading for a while.
Directional bias: If it snows, the snowflakes will have a bearish directional bias. The market will have no direction.
How I would trade this event: I will trade non-expiring Calls on happy thoughts.
5. US Unemployment Claims
12/26/2013 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 382K from the previous 379K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: Unemployment numbers are closely watched by US policy makers in order to gauge the economy’s performance. Lower numbers of unemployed people suggest a healthy economy and potentially a stronger greenback.
Directional bias: UP the actual number is lower than 382K
DOWN if the actual number is higher than 382K
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour call on EUR/USD if the number will be higher than expected.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.
Note 2: The market will probably have irregular movement for the entire week due to winter holidays. The events mentioned will have mixed and/or hard to predict impact.